Question 1

What is the "Bitcoin Floor" (200-week MA)?

Accepted Answer

The "Bitcoin Floor" is the 200-week moving average of BTC's weekly closing price. It represents the structural minimum price level of the market: historically, Bitcoin has never closed a week below this line on a sustained basis. It is the most widely used long-term reference by institutional investors to assess whether Bitcoin is expensive or cheap.

Question 2

Why is the Floor CAGR better than conventional CAGR?

Accepted Answer

Conventional CAGR (calculated on the nominal price) is enormously distorted by Bitcoin's extreme volatility. If the start or end point coincides with a cycle peak or trough, the result can be +500% or -80% for the same asset. The Floor CAGR uses the 200-week MA as the reference price, eliminating that volatility and offering a more stable appreciation rate comparable to physical assets like gold or real estate.

Question 3

What is the historical appreciation rate of the Floor?

Accepted Answer

From 2018 to the present, the Bitcoin Floor (200-week MA) has grown at an annualized rate of approximately 50% per year. Over 5-year periods (2016-2021), the rate is around 58% per year. These figures are more conservative than the nominal price CAGR, but far more representative of the asset's real structural growth.

Question 4

How to use the period selector to calculate CAGR?

Accepted Answer

Drag the handles of the brush selector at the bottom of the chart to define the period you want to analyze. The Floor CAGR and Nominal CAGR are automatically recalculated for that interval. You can compare 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, or any custom range.

Question 5

What does the "Floor Premium" mean?

Accepted Answer

The Floor Premium indicates how much above (or below) the MA200 Floor Bitcoin is currently trading. A positive premium of +25% means the price is 25% above the structural floor, which is historically normal in bull phases. Premiums above +200-300% have coincided with cycle tops. When the premium is negative (price below the floor), it has historically represented the best long-term buying opportunities.

Period	Yrs	Start	End	CAGR
2018-2021	3.47	$2,558	$18,830	+77.79%/yr
2022-2025	3.99	$18,992	$57,068	+31.79%/yr

Bitcoin Floor

Bitcoin Floor

Floor CAGR by Period

FAQ — Bitcoin Floor