Question 1

What is the 4-Year Moving Average?

Accepted Answer

The 4-Year Moving Average (MA 4Y) is the average Bitcoin price over the last 1,461 days (~4 years). It is a long-term trend indicator that smooths daily volatility. Historically, when BTC price is well above the MA4Y, the market is in a euphoria/bubble zone; when below, it is typically an accumulation zone.

Question 2

What is the price/MA4Y index?

Accepted Answer

The index is the ratio between the current BTC price and its MA4Y. A value of 1.0 means the price is exactly at the average. Values above 2.0-3.0 have historically coincided with cycle tops (sell zones). Values below 1.0 have represented cycle bottoms (buy zones).

Question 3

How to use the MA4Y to identify cycles?

Accepted Answer

The classic strategy is: accumulate when price falls below the MA4Y (green zone on the chart) and reduce exposure when price exceeds 2-3x the MA4Y. In the 2020-2021 cycle, BTC reached 5x its MA4Y at the peak. In the current cycle (2024-2025), the peak was ~2.2x the MA4Y, suggesting a more moderate cycle.

Question 4

Why does the data start in 2018?

Accepted Answer

The MA4Y needs 4 years of prior data to be calculated correctly. Since Yahoo Finance data for BTC-USD starts in September 2014, the MA4Y calculated with a full window (1,461 days) is only available from September 2018.

4Y Moving Average

4Y Moving Average

FAQ — 4Y Moving Average